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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.